Is everyone right to be excited about this? Am I just being a negative stick-in-the-mud? Does Australia truly stand a chance?
Let me begin by stating that I have followed the World Cup since 1974. Let me also state that I have held a secret desire the last few years that South Africa might fall over and that Australia might end up hosting the WC by default. I have felt for a while that that sort of eventuality (and you can throw in Brazil for 2014) provided Australia the more realistic prospect of hosting the WC in the next 30 years. Many might find it odd that I would think that sort of scenario would provide Australia its best chance. But anyone who thought that is probably unaware of a precedent set in the lead up to the 1986 WC which was destined for Colombia. For reasons that do not need to be detailed here, Colombia pulled out with only a couple of years to go, and FIFA was forced to make a hasty decision and ask Mexico to step in. At that time, Mexico had hosted a very successful WC only 14 years earlier, and had just hosted the World U20 Cup. Mexico became the first (and only) country to host the WC twice within 16 years, and both tournaments were great successes.
So you see - I'm not anti hosting the WC per se - so why do I think this bid is pie in the sky? The reasons are many and varied, so here I will try and outline my top six reasons why Australia has next to zero chance in hosting the WC in 2018.
1. Sepp Blatter
Sepp Blatter, President of FIFA since 1998, is the archetypal Machiavellian. He's a great survivor, plays the political game as well as anyone on Earth and rarely misses an opportunity. He broke Australian hearts a few years ago when he promised Oceania direct qualification to the WC, orchestrated it, enjoyed Oceania's vote, and when it was no longer needed, stood back as the other confederations promptly voted in a reversal of that decision. Blatter shrugged his shoulders and pointed to New Zealand's poor performance in the recently completed Confederations Cup as the likely reason. Yeh, right.
It was also Sepp Blatter that ushered in the rotation policy which meant that each confederation would get a turn at hosting the WC. This allowed Japan/South Korea to host in 2002 (the first time Asia had hosted the WC), and just as significantly, South Africa to win the rights for 2010 (the first time that Africa will host it). South America gets a turn in 2014 with Brazil (incidentally, it will represent the first time South America has hosted the event in 36 years). There are some good feathers in the cap there, but just as the rotation policy was going swimmingly well, it was ditched. No more rotation policy beyond 2014.
I promise everyone, Sepp Battler doesn't make a decision like this unless something significant is lurking underneath. That significant something is not going to be Australia, which brings us to...
2. Europe
The Union Européenne de Football Association or Union of European Football Associations in English (UEFA) is the controlling body for European football, and let me assure you, it is almost as powerful as FIFA itself. How powerful? Let us just say that since 1958, Europe has hosted every 2nd WC without fail. So 1958 to 2006, Europe has hosted the WC every 8 years. Germany hosted in 2006. With South Africa hosting in 2010 and Brazil in 2014, this will mean that 2018 will represent 12 years since Europe last hosted the WC.
Are the Europeans going to stand going without for 12 years? Or even 16 years? Of course not! Who do you think got in Blatter's ear about ditching the rotation policy in the first place?!
On top of that, look who is putting their hands up to host the WC from Europe:
- England (part of footballing royalty, the wealthiest domestic football competition in the World, hasn't hosted since 1966, the only time they won the WC);
- Russia (good footballing pedigree, extremely deep pockets); and
- Holland/Belgium (both have proud WC histories; and while FIFA might generally frown on joint bids, these two closely linked Benelux countries putting a joint bid forward is not the same has Japan/Sth Korea putting a joint bid forward).
Speaking of footballing pedigrees...
3. Footballing pedigree
...Australia has none. Sorry, but making the 2nd round once in the 76 year history of the WC just doesn't cut it. We may not like to admit it, but on the World footballing radar we are way, way, way over the horizon. Speaking of horizons...
4. Geography
...unfortunately, we are way, way, way over the horizon (geographically as well). Our time zone is atrocious. The big money is in the European time zones, and sorry, FIFA just isn't going to give up that coin that easily. Australia's only chance of turning this flaw around is with China's economic and political influence continuing to grow, which it undoubtedly will, which brings us to...
5. China
...the growth of China's economic and political influence. On top of the three strong European bidders mentioned above, China wants to bid for the 2018 WC as well! Ok, we defeated China in the race for the 2000 Olympics, but 18 years on and China is, well, bigger and more influential! Everyone wants a slice of Chinese action in a way that they don't want a slice of Australian action. And if that weren't enough, the US and Mexico are throwing their hats into the ring as well.
Which brings us to...
6. Backroom deals
We went through all the wheeling and dealing, and palm greasing to get the 2000 Olympics, are we up to more Machiavellian manoeuvres?
In short, no.
I've only just read somewhere that England and Russia have done a deal. For Russia's support in getting the 2018 WC, England will support Russia's bid in getting the 2014 European cup. And that's just the start.
I fear that on this occasion, there is far too much stacked against us.
But if we realise this soon enough, we could turn our attention on the 2022 WC. For starters, three very good European bidders will be out of the picture (because Europe will not host it twice in a row, although they did do that in 1954 and 1958), and with a little luck, some of the other 2018 bidders might fall by the wayside. On top of that, it gives us two more WCs to make a mark - and that can count for a lot.
If we were smart, we would set our sights on 2022. If we were really, really smart, we would be doing a deal with England right now.
6 comments:
Oh ye of little faith!
Of course every single one of your points is absolutely spot on, bar two geography and backroom deals.
Backroom deals are exactly where we'll win the rights. Simply because:
- Sepp Blatter, he makes John Howard look like an amateur but we know that and know what to expect AND more importantly what level that the backroom dealing will be at
- Frank Lowy is involved, the man who got us into the AFC, if anyone can that level of wheeling and dealing, it's the man who nearly got a Westfield mall built at the site of the World trade centre.
- it's not just about football politics, votes can easily be bought and sold with trade agreements and come 2011 when the voting will take place how much more will our uranium be worth in the face of worsening climate change?
And geography:
- Asia contains the fastest growing economies with THE largest television audience on the planet. Europe may have been where the braodcast money was in the past but as is the motto of the AFC "The future is Asia"
As I said on The Flog instead of arguing about whether or not we'll win the rights. Lets help the FFA by white-anting the bids of the other nations.
djebella - good response - you may well be right that ultimately the progress that Asia has made on the world stage (on a number of fronts) may determine this. Given that the decision for 2018 will be made in 2011, it could equally be argued that that growing influence will reach a critical mass by 2015 (the vote for 2022).
Great article, agreed with the majority.
One small thing, I don't think footballing pedigree has anything to do with it. I mean, South Africa, Korea/Japan, even the USA don't have great footballing pedigrees. And really Mexico aren't that special either. These locations were chosen to grow to game not enhance it.
None the less, I agree with your sentiments. England for 2018 and China for 2022. As much as I would like to see it here, I'm just not enough of an optimist to see it happen.
Thanks for your comments.
Of course the examples of South Korea/Japan and South Africa were under the rotation policy, and underscores the fact that the scrapping of the policy must disadvantage hopeful bidders such as Australia, especially when they cannot rely on either a football pedigree OR FIFA's goal to push the game to a large, untapped market (such as the US and China).
All in all, the only thing Australia has going for it is its proven capacity to organise large sporting tournaments (which does count for something, but on this occasion, probably not enough).
Football is all about money than football. In the mid to late 1800’s football remained in Britain and Ireland. Blokes put together a team, had a few drinks, and a laugh. No ticket prices, no memberships, no trading. At the turn of the 19th century a little group called FIFA was formed, which looked past the Olympics as a main football tournament and they then developed their own bag of cash. So, they took the game to South America to cash in. Unfortunately for Britain, these poor little dusty Brazilian, Uruguayan, Argentinean, Mexican kids developed skills that the Brits couldn’t handle so the Brits pulled out and FIFA kept marching on with the bag wide opened. South America was the place to be until the money started running low then they packed up and turned their attentions back to Europe. Every few World Cup’s from the mid 1950’s to 2000 they treat themselves to a trip to South America whilst stuffing still their bag with European money. Although Europe still has strong (and increasing) football wealth, Asia is now the new Europe and FIFA knows this. There are 1.2 billion Indian's and 1.4 billion Chinese. Both nations have only one national sport (not like our nation, which has a minimum of 6), both nations can generate wealth. India in my opinion is THE sleeping giant. The developed world (mainly the USA) used to mock Japan as under developed (in the 70’s) now Japan is the electronic maharishi of the world. India is leading the world generic medications. It will only be a matter of time before their government will regulate their own assets then they’ll be amongst the wealthiest nations in the world and FIFA will be standing on their doorstep with the bag opened. Australia has very little population, very little collective national interest in our football, we’re 1000’s of miles from Seth Blatters house, and quite honestly the only way we’ll get the World Cup here is if Frank Lowey organises Australia to be towed to the North of Asia or FIFA wants a holiday in Australia. There’s barely enough football money here in Australia to keep a national league floating let alone attract FIFA’s opened bag.
If the FFA really want’s FIFA to bring the World Cup to Australia, they better send pictures of kangaroos lounging around on the harbour bridge, koloas sitting around a card table playing cards at Coburg, and the wobat’s wandering around parliament house.
Go Kalac
Go Kalac - another great post, in your own inimitable style.
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